Reality Check - Oil and Energy Shortages Behind Global Finance Woes, & More

What Greece, Cyprus, and Puerto Rico Have in Common

We all know one thing that Greece, Cyprus, and Puerto Rico have in common–severe financial problems. There is something else that they have in common–a high proportion of their energy use is from oil. Figure 1 shows the ratio of oil use to energy use for selected European countries in 2006.

Greece and Cyprus are at the bottom of this chart. The other “PIIGS” countries (Ireland, Spain, Italy, and Portugal) are immediately above Greece. Puerto Rico is not European so is not on Figure 1, but it if were shown on this chart, it would appear between Greece and Cyprus–its oil as a percentage of its energy consumption was 98.4% in 2006. The year 2006 was chosen because it was before the big crash of 2008. The percentages are bit lower now, but the relationship is very similar now.

Why The 'Smart Money' Was Right About Crude Oil Again

In my last several crude oil updates, I showed that the “smart money” was betting against crude oil’s rebound that started in March, while the “dumb money” was the main driving force behind it. I have been skeptical of oil’s rebound due to persistently high inventories and the still-sizable long position held by speculators even after last year’s oil crash. Light sweet crude oil sank 7.6 percent during last week’s China-induced commodities rout and because active oil rigs rose for a second straight week after months of declines.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil broke down from its wedge patternthat I showed in late-June, and is now sitting just above its key $50 per barrel support level. If WTI crude breaks decisively below its $50 support level, a resumption of the 2014 oil bear market is quite possible. WTI crude may be forming a flag pattern that could indicate further declines if broken to the downside.

Oil Imports Have Energy Poor Greece In A Stranglehold

After several years, several months, several weeks and several days of crisis, it looks like things are about to come to a head for Greece and its banks. It becomes easier to understand exactly what GREXIT may mean for the Greek people. What happens when the banks and the government completely run out of money?

Greece has some indigenous coal production (lignite) but no oil or gas to speak of which means that all oil and gas are imported (Figure 1). This is linked to a structural trade deficit that contributes to the country’s dependency on debt. If Greece runs out of Euros, will it be able to buy oil and gas on the international markets? Greece held 90 days of oil stocks in 2010 [2]. Once that is gone then the tourist industry may collapse?

Carl Icahn Believes “There Really Is A Bubble Brewing”

Billionaire investor Carl Icahn spoke with FOX Business Network’s (FBN) Neil Cavuto and Trish Regan about the economy, saying “I believe that there really is a bubble brewing.” He went on to say that we are in “unchartered territory,” with historically low interest rates, and “a market that’s going up artificially,” which “could be very destructive to our markets and our economy.” When asked about what the Federal Reserve should do, Icahn said, “stop worrying what the markets will do,” and “start raising rates right now.” He went on to say that the “Fed is really pandering to a lot of these guys on Wall Street that they really shouldn’t be pandering to.” Regarding whether he’d take the role of Treasury Secretary, as Donald Trump suggested,” Icahn said, “I guess I would not. I sleep too late.”

Greek crisis: surrender fiscal sovereignty in return 
for bailout, Merkel tells Tsipras 

Two days of high-stakes negotiations between the finance ministers of the currency bloc resulted in a four-page document that included controversial German elements leaked on Saturday. Those measures included Greece leaving the euro temporarily by taking a “time-out” from the currency bloc if it refuses terms for talks on the new bailout or, in the event of agreement, that Greece sets aside €50bn worth of assets as collateral for new loans and for eventual privatisation. Both passages, however, did not enjoy a consensus among eurozone leaders.

Policy Extremes Maintain Illusion of Stability: Charles Hugh Smith 

What is not an illusion is the extreme trouble many EU countries are in. Besides Greece, Spain and Italy are deep in debt. Smith contends, “Spain’s debt is a trillion euros. Italy is over a trillion euros in debt. We are talking fairly serious money here.”

China’s Incendiary Market Is Fanned by Borrowers and Manipulation 

China’s market is also shaped by the heavy hand of the government, which makes decisions about what companies can list shares, when to promote stock rallies and, now, how to intervene when prices plummet. The government, in other words, views the market as a policy instrument, a mechanism to fulfill its political and economic goals. The result can be a volatile market that swings from boom to bust.

Reality Check - Oil and Energy Shortages Behind Global Finance Woes, & More

What Greece, Cyprus, and Puerto Rico Have in Common

We all know one thing that Greece, Cyprus, and Puerto Rico have in common–severe financial problems. There is something else that they have in common–a high proportion of their energy use is from oil. Figure 1 shows the ratio of oil use to energy use for selected European countries in 2006.

Greece and Cyprus are at the bottom of this chart. The other “PIIGS” countries (Ireland, Spain, Italy, and Portugal) are immediately above Greece. Puerto Rico is not European so is not on Figure 1, but it if were shown on this chart, it would appear between Greece and Cyprus–its oil as a percentage of its energy consumption was 98.4% in 2006. The year 2006 was chosen because it was before the big crash of 2008. The percentages are bit lower now, but the relationship is very similar now.

Why The 'Smart Money' Was Right About Crude Oil Again

In my last several crude oil updates, I showed that the “smart money” was betting against crude oil’s rebound that started in March, while the “dumb money” was the main driving force behind it. I have been skeptical of oil’s rebound due to persistently high inventories and the still-sizable long position held by speculators even after last year’s oil crash. Light sweet crude oil sank 7.6 percent during last week’s China-induced commodities rout and because active oil rigs rose for a second straight week after months of declines.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil broke down from its wedge patternthat I showed in late-June, and is now sitting just above its key $50 per barrel support level. If WTI crude breaks decisively below its $50 support level, a resumption of the 2014 oil bear market is quite possible. WTI crude may be forming a flag pattern that could indicate further declines if broken to the downside.

Oil Imports Have Energy Poor Greece In A Stranglehold

After several years, several months, several weeks and several days of crisis, it looks like things are about to come to a head for Greece and its banks. It becomes easier to understand exactly what GREXIT may mean for the Greek people. What happens when the banks and the government completely run out of money?

Greece has some indigenous coal production (lignite) but no oil or gas to speak of which means that all oil and gas are imported (Figure 1). This is linked to a structural trade deficit that contributes to the country’s dependency on debt. If Greece runs out of Euros, will it be able to buy oil and gas on the international markets? Greece held 90 days of oil stocks in 2010 [2]. Once that is gone then the tourist industry may collapse?

Carl Icahn Believes “There Really Is A Bubble Brewing”

Billionaire investor Carl Icahn spoke with FOX Business Network’s (FBN) Neil Cavuto and Trish Regan about the economy, saying “I believe that there really is a bubble brewing.” He went on to say that we are in “unchartered territory,” with historically low interest rates, and “a market that’s going up artificially,” which “could be very destructive to our markets and our economy.” When asked about what the Federal Reserve should do, Icahn said, “stop worrying what the markets will do,” and “start raising rates right now.” He went on to say that the “Fed is really pandering to a lot of these guys on Wall Street that they really shouldn’t be pandering to.” Regarding whether he’d take the role of Treasury Secretary, as Donald Trump suggested,” Icahn said, “I guess I would not. I sleep too late.”

Greek crisis: surrender fiscal sovereignty in return 
for bailout, Merkel tells Tsipras 

Two days of high-stakes negotiations between the finance ministers of the currency bloc resulted in a four-page document that included controversial German elements leaked on Saturday. Those measures included Greece leaving the euro temporarily by taking a “time-out” from the currency bloc if it refuses terms for talks on the new bailout or, in the event of agreement, that Greece sets aside €50bn worth of assets as collateral for new loans and for eventual privatisation. Both passages, however, did not enjoy a consensus among eurozone leaders.

Policy Extremes Maintain Illusion of Stability: Charles Hugh Smith 

What is not an illusion is the extreme trouble many EU countries are in. Besides Greece, Spain and Italy are deep in debt. Smith contends, “Spain’s debt is a trillion euros. Italy is over a trillion euros in debt. We are talking fairly serious money here.”

China’s Incendiary Market Is Fanned by Borrowers and Manipulation 

China’s market is also shaped by the heavy hand of the government, which makes decisions about what companies can list shares, when to promote stock rallies and, now, how to intervene when prices plummet. The government, in other words, views the market as a policy instrument, a mechanism to fulfill its political and economic goals. The result can be a volatile market that swings from boom to bust.

Why Globalization & Free Trade Deals Destroy Middle Class Hopes And Dreams

Twelve Reasons Why Globalization is a Huge Problem

 

"What is clear is that a very small elite have benefited from globalization and free trade. The terrible costs to the vast majority are without measure nor historic precedent - the people were fooled outright by their evil propaganda and criminal lies."  

12. Globalization ties countries together, so that if one country collapses, the collapse is likely to ripple through the system, pulling many other countries with it.

History includes many examples of civilizations that started from a small base, gradually grew to over-utilize their resource base, and then collapsed. We are now dealing with a world situation which is not too different. The big difference this time is that a large number of countries is involved, and these countries are increasingly interdependent. In my post 2013: Beginning of Long-Term Recession, I showed that there are significant parallels between financial dislocations now happening in the United States and the types of changes which happened in other societies, prior to collapse.  My analysis was based on  the model of collapse developed in the book Secular Cycles by Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov.

It is not just the United States that is in perilous financial condition. Many European countries and Japan are in similarly poor condition. The failure of one country has the potential to pull many others down, and with it much of the system. The only countries that remain safe are the ones that have not grown to depend on globalization–which is probably not many today–perhaps landlocked countries of Africa.

In the past, when one area collapsed, there was less interdependence. When one area collapsed, it was possible to let cropland “rest” and deforested areas regrow. With regeneration, and perhaps new technology, it was possible for a new civilization to grow in the same area later. If we are dealing with a world-wide collapse, it will be much more difficult to follow this model.

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Crime, drugs and disease are imported without control

STOP “Trade” (Immigration Flood) Deal!

POPULATION-ENVIRONMENT BALANCE
www.balance.org

"Action Alert"





June, 2015

STOP “Trade” (Immigration Flood) Deal! & Support BALANCE’s Real Solution
  

Greetings!

The Senate has passed a TPA (Trade Promotion Authority) Bill giving President Obama “Fast Track” Authority to Unilaterally negotiate the Terms of the Trade Deal known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership with eleven (or more) Asian and Latin American Nations.

Only the House of Representatives can stop it now!

And it must be stopped because it would likely result in authorizing an almost unlimited number of Foreign “Guest Workers” to Flood the U.S. Job market via the L1 and other Visas, in addition to the Million+plus Immigrants already admitted legally each year and the hundreds of thousands coming illegally.

L1 Visa Holders typically use the L! as a stepping stone to getting a Green Card entitling them to achieve permanent residence. And Spouses of L1 Visa holders are allowed to work without restriction (via the L2) in the U.S. too. And there is no Firm CAP on the number of L1 and L2 Visas issued. And these workers would compete for jobs with Millions of Unemployed and Underemployed Americans.

Senator Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.)summarizes the seriously Negative Consequences.  "Fast Track is an affirmative decision by Congress to suspend several of its most basic powers for the next six years and to delegate those powers to the Executive. … Because TPP is a ‘Living Agreement’ it can be changed after adoption … (it) would empower the President … to admit more foreign workers into the United States — without ever coming to Congress for approval … (and for) immigration increases above current law — and precious few ways Congress could stop its happening.”

Thus, Approval of the TPA would allow potentially unlimited Immigration Increases above Current Law without Congressional Approval. The Sad History of these Trade Deals show they Hurt American Business and Workers.

Between 2000 and 2010 after NAFTA, GATT and MFN for China, 55,000 U.S. factories closed and 5 million to 6 million manufacturing Jobs Disappeared.  TPA and TPP would be worse because, besides jobs disappearing, immigration could go on steroids and more immigrants would be in the US taking jobs that Americans need.

HELP Stop TPA in the House, which intends to act on it very soon!

Contact your Representative in the House and Urge your Rep to VOTE No on the Fast Track TPA Bill and on any TPP Agreement. The Best Way to Raise American Workers’ Wages is to reduce increasing competition from Legal and Illegal Immigrants.

And for BALANCE Supporters it is time to help BALANCE in its Push for environmentally sustainable immigration policies.  Indeed, BALANCE and its ASAP! Coalition Allies are the only organizations which are actually pushing what would be a Real Solution to our Nation’s problems caused by Immigration-generated Population Growth.

If you have supported us in the past, but not within the last year, now is the time to renew your Annual Membership — only $35 / $50 / $100 / $250  or more

Make a Tax-Deductible Donation at balance.org or Mail a Check to our Mailing Address Below.

And if you have never supported BALANCE, NOW is the time.


Ensure you receive key information (often suppressed by the Main Stream Media!) about developments in Washington DC and across the country regarding these two important and interlinked issues facing our country and actually help BALANCE push Real Solutions.

For example, consider BALANCE’s Real Solution to the Water Crisis in the West (See BALANCE’s May 2015 Alert posted at www.balance.org ).

Indeed, the extent of and likely seriously Negative prospects for the intensifying Water Crisis are not being revealed to residents of California nor indeed to the entire West. Thus, the public is not prepared for the Havoc this Crisis will likely cause in the next few months.

Consider that virtually all of California’s 400,000 plus annual population growth is caused by Legal and Illegal Immigration. The added population causes a demand for an Additional Million Acre feet of Water per year, which is the entire Amount of Water actually in 9 Major California Reservoirs as we write.  A NASA/Cal-Tech Scientist correctly claims that California will literally run out of water in its Reservoirs within one year if present Trends continue.

We should be prepared to see this intensifying Crisis as an Opportunity. We need to work at raising public awareness of the underlying population problem, so that it creates a Genuine Chance of actually achieving substantial Immigration Reduction.

Only two other nonprofits have explicitly linked immigration-generated population growth to the Water Crisis, but one of them has done it in a counterproductive way by informing the public about the linkage, but then failing to push an Effective Immigration Solution -  one which would truly ameliorate the problem in the long run -  allows someone to conclude that “Toilet to Tap” Sewage Reprocessing and/or more Dams or Canals (for Non-Existent Water) are Realistic.

The Only Solution that would keep the Situation from getting much, much worse than it already will be, is to push for a zero-net Moratorium on Legal Immigration (as well as actually enforcing the border in accordance with existing law).

Advocating a demographically and ecologically realistic Solution is essential. Only Advocacy of a zero-net Moratorium is ALSO politically powerful enough to get Immigration Reductions and stop Mass Migration across the Border.

Only one Message is powerful enough to give immigration reduction a good chance of being enacted by the incoming President and Congress in Spring, 2017. That message is a zero-net Moratorium. Only BALANCE and its ASAP! Coalition Allies are pushing zero-Net, and we need to continue to build Momentum for a Real Solution. (Zero-net would still allow admission of about 150,000 immigrants per year.)

Nature, which always bats last, has given BALANCE and its Allies the Opportunity to actually Succeed in getting Dramatic Immigration reductions.

We ask for your support. Make a Tax-Deductible Donation at our Website, balance.org, or by mail to

Mailing address: 

Population-Environment Balance | P.O. Box 268 | San Francisco, CA 94104

Thank you,

Population-Environment Balance

 

Mailing address:
Population-Environment Balance | P.O. Box 268 | San Francisco, CA 94104

Washington, DC address:
Population-Environment Balance | 1629 K Street NW, Suite 300 | Washington DC, 20006


 

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Humanity's Insanity - Impossible Growth Mantra